The global programme “Policy Advice for Climate Resilient Economic Development” (CRED) supports adaptation planning at the national level in Vietnam, Kazakhstan and Georgia. Local modellers are trained to use macro-economic modelling to calculate adaptation scenarios. The models were designed by research institutes and fed with data received by local partners. Despite close cooperation with sectoral experts, data collection remains challenging in certain sectors. In these cases, regional and international data is used. Macro-economic modelling allows for estimating the impacts of climate change and various adaptation scenarios on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. The strategic dissemination of results should serve as a basis for evaluation, decision-making and implementation of national and sectoral adaptation planning. In Vietnam, CRED’s modelling results support the development of the Vietnam Green Growth Strategy (VGGS) by providing evidence-based information on adaptation measures in various sectors. The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) can include the results in its considerations on the allocation of funds for adaptation and mitigation measures.
The modelling in Vietnam is carried out using a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model (DGE-CRED) developed by scientists from the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). The second series of trainings focussing on scenario analysis and adaptation planning will start in mid-October. A total of 10 modellers from the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), which reports directly to the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI), as well as from other state research institutes, such as MONRE and MARD, will take part in the training. The participants are experienced in both policy making and research and, therefore, carry valuable expertise for the application and further development of the model. In the first step, the trainings introduce the participants to the DGE-CRED model and its core functions. In further sessions, the modellers work on scenario analyses for five selected sectors. An introduction to the modelling software MATLAB and its application to the DGE-CRED model is conducted in preparation for the modelling sessions. The anchorage of the model is additionally supported by training materials and a model manual developed by IWH.
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