Vietnam submitted its updated NDC to the UNFCCC on 11 September following approval by the Prime Minister in July. The updated NDC pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 9%, or 83.9 million tons CO2e, by 2030 compared to business-as-usual (BAU). This is a slight increase by one percentage point compared to the prior (I)NDC. The mitigation target reaches 27% (or 250.8 million tons CO2e) with international support, compared to 25% in the (I)NDC. The BAU scenario, which reflects projected economic growth in the absence of climate change policies and interventions, uses 2014 as the base year instead of 2010 in the (I)NDC. This adjustment was made in light of the more comprehensive information base that has been elaborated since 2015 and to correspond to the latest national GHG inventory results. The updated NDC adds an additional sector (industrial processes) as well as chapters on climate adaptation and co-benefits, and thus goes beyond the scope of NDC I.
The updated NDC now addresses greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the industrial processes sector, which accounted for about 12% of the country’s total emissions in 2014. The defined mitigation options for this sector focus on replacing clinker in cement production by using alternative raw materials. Further mitigation measures that were identified target energy (including transport), agriculture, waste, and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors. Emphasis in the energy sector, which shows the largest GHG growth rate, lies on increasing efficiency and clean infrastructure investments. Specific mitigation measures include developing renewable energy, restructuring transportation towards climate-friendly modes and technologies, and shifting from conventional fuels to biofuel, natural gas, and electricity.
The revision process, which was supported by the SIPA project and conducted over a period of more than three years, represents a tremendous joint effort by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), line ministries, academic institutions (such as the Vietnam Panel on Climate Change), city representatives, NGOs, and private sector actors. From mid-2017, numerous workshops, consultations, and writing retreats made vital contributions to the updated NDC.
The adaptation component identifies strategic tasks to enhance adaptation efficiency and increase resilience. Adaptation measures to minimize damage caused by future climate change impacts are specifically identified for regions and sectors. These are centred around natural resources and environment; agriculture and rural development; public health, gender equality, and child protection; cities, housing, and transport; tourism and hospitality; industry; and trade.
The updated NDC underlines Vietnam´s extremely high vulnerability by quantifying the loss and damage Vietnam is facing even when NDC measures are effectively implemented. Among other impacts, a loss of about 2% of GDP is forecast by 2050, associated with sea level rises of 18-38 centimetres. By 2100, sea level rise of one metre is possible, which would submerge 6.3% of Vietnam’s land area. Losses and damage caused by sea level rise in the agricultural sector alone could reach nearly USD 43 billion between now and 2100.
Please find the updated NDC here.